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Aug. 29, 2022

Hobby Quick Hits Ep.127 Predictions for the Hobby

Hobby Quick Hits Ep.127 Predictions for the Hobby

I put on my fortune teller hat and dust off the old crystal ball to see what's going to happen in the hobby in the next 1-2 years, Disclaimer: This is my Crystal Ball and I got it on sale at Walmart.

Also:
*New Product Release Schedule
*Hobby News...


I put on my fortune teller hat and dust off the old crystal ball to see what's going to happen in the hobby in the next 1-2 years, Disclaimer: This is my Crystal Ball and I got it on sale at Walmart.

Also:
*New Product Release Schedule
*Hobby News
*Ask me a question

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Transcript

7:14 PM
Delivering their breaking hobby. Little welcome to episode 127 of happy quick hits. Is episode or it's going to be about Hobby, predictions things, I see happening. We'll probably keep it to a year, right? The next year, in the hobby, it was an episode. I wanted to do quite frankly, probably a month and a half back, but with the national approach and I said, hey, you know what, let's go to the National, observe some stuff there, take some stuff in before putting this episode out there. So It's here today. I'll go kind of around the Hobby World and they're all obviously predictions. Just the based on observations based on experience. You know, some of these are going to be wrong. Some of these are going to be right in some of the ones, I'm predicting quite frankly, I hope I'm wrong because they're not, obviously all good. So on the bad ones, I hope I'm wrong. But it's kind of a Fun thing to do and maybe check back in and look, you know, after year and come back and see how many I was right at and how many I was wrong. But before I get my crystal ball out, let's hear from our great sponsors over at boat rope breaks. After that, we'll get into new release quick Q&A or hobby news for the week and then we'll tackle some predictions. Mojo brake shop talk, Is the best place to get your sealed wax products. And breaks they not only have the best selection but the best prices, whether it's a box or a whole case, they are your guys, they ship worldwide to your doorstep. Their reputation as one of the most trusted in the hobby goes unmatched. They are the 2021 tops. RIT party Champion Breakers from sports car to Pokemon cards. There are selection can't be beat, they offered a Deals and pre-orders. Hey guys, John Newman here. Mojo's prices are already great, but to save an additional 10% off anything in their store used to code, quick hit. That's q u IC. Ke H, iits check out the full service store that's open. Seven days a week in Santa Clara California or the website at Mojo break.com. 

Let's check out this way. Hey guys, this is Maxie and releases for the sports. Coordination podcast starting off, we have 2022. Meaning women's football. On the 31st along with 2022, Panini Chronicles, UFC 2022, top Star, Wars the middle and chrome. Best guard ition 2022. The tops here. One Bundesliga soccer, 20 21, 22 traps you in the fa a League Stadium Club, Chrome, soccer. Need twenty one, twenty two, twenty twenty, Twenty One, Upper Deck, clear-cut Hockey. And on the second, we have 2022 Leaf pesos Sports 2021 Panisse. Like the Lolly, shh, 20:22 Pokemon, Go Pain, collection 20, 21 22. Thank you guys for joining and this is the Carnation podcast. Enjoy the rest of your week. 

Time for the segment where you ask me a question and I answer it here on the podcast. All right, this week's question comes by way of Seth from email, emailed the show, email, and TS John. We're seeing a proliferation of shows and I'm not just talking about the national, but other Big Show's Regional shows. And like you said on your show, Erosion of local shows. Can the hobby sustain. All the shows. Thank you for the question. Seth, you know, it's what the market will Bear, right? It's like product release, right? If they make too much and and the price points too high, people won't buy it right. I think it's the same thing with shows that there's too many and you know price point isn't really Factor other than what the dealers 

Selling their Wares for at the show but somebody shows charge a decent admission. If they have like panels and discussions and interactive stuff like that, and then you have to determine is it worth whatever that cost is to go? But getting back to your really original question, the market, you know, it's the cop out answer, but it's not about cuz it's true, right? The market will bear that out if you know, hobby continues to grow. And when I say grow up, I'm talking people wise, you know, sure these shows will be in demand people travel for these. You know, one look on social media and you see people flying all over to every show, right? Whether it's west coast, East Coast, Midwest there, either setting up or going there and Wheeling. They're dealing corporates are trying to make their presence known at. Not just the Nashville, but other Regional and 

And bigger type shows as well. So right now shows are going strong, but now if there becomes too many and you know, if the market continues to really Decline and soften even more, you know what we'll see? Is there a Tipping Point, you know, it's like scales right? Where there's too many shows and that enough attendees, I don't really see that happen. So I guess the, you know, The short answer is no, but we might see some decline in attendance, right? Just like sporting events, right? Because you always shoot, unless you're less your day, Oakland A's, there's always usually some people in the stadium, right? But sometimes they're not all sell out. So we'll see how this goes. It'll be interesting. The next few years to would again Fanatics kind of, you know, 

Taking control of card manufacturing and see what kind of effect might have show attendance. But now I shows are here to stay. Everyone loves the show, myself included, whether that's attending a setting up as a dealer or just attending as a consumer they're both fun for me for the most part, you know, setting up as a dealer can be a grind sometimes but you know what I get to Do there after that. You know we're talking to people and selling some stuff acquiring some stuff, you know, those are great experiences that you can't poo poo. So I hope that answers your question Seth and it's a good question. 

Let's Go Round The Hobby verse and catch up on this week's hubby news. All right, the big story is the Heritage auction has closed. The one containing the 9.5 STC Mickey? Mantle I guessed 12.7 at the national I was close 12.6. However, many experts including some in the building at Heritage expected a higher number, Between 15 and 17 million dollars. So, the some while the new record they may be a little disappointed. This replaces the Wagner from a few weeks back as the highest sold single baseball card and also now becomes the highest piece of sports memorabilia ever sold as well as it Trump's the nine point, I believe six million dollars at the Merida. Nona. And of God Year's Eve brought about six months ago. So it's a new record holder on two fronts, but believe it or not, some people may not be happy with the realized price. Another item that was supposed to bring over two million dollars. You know, as predicted by air quotes, the experts was in 1918 to 1920 to gain views. Is autographed bat by Babe Ruth, who was bad? That was also used by Home, Run Baker, again pundits. Thought it would put Clips the two million dollar. Mark fell short at one point six eight million dollars. My good friend, Danny black, who had some items that he had brokered for clients was in this auction. Also fell short of a few estimates. So we're going to have him on probably did Show for a special episode to talk about this auction and the current market conditions. If we can get that done look for that as early as next week, Panini the World Cup is approaching your world cup is later this year. So it's B. It's start November 21st, and goes to December 18th. And The Panini World Cup stickers will be coming out this week. It's the 670 sticker set. Packs will have five stickers in them and boxes will have 50 packs a box. If you do the math, you're looking at, probably at least three boxes to complete the set for the first time ever, the US version will have parallels, including blue, purple, green, black and red and Panini will be selling online exclusive packs which will feature for gold base colored sticker. So You know, this will this will be a big item, you know, we'll see what the secondary Market will do, but the introductory price will be normal. If you find it at your, we tailed level, you know, might be a good idea to pick pick some up. So that's that's this week. The Brady contenders Auto sold by Golden. That was formerly a PSA six. That was altered to become a PSA 8. Golden has On the right thing and voided the fifty four thousand dollar auction and, you know, repay the buyer. And I don't know what you're doing with the card, but they've rescinded the auction and last or here kind of a local flavor for me, and Syracuse here. EBay has purchased TCG gaming found it. In Syracuse, they paid. 295 million dollars, TCG famous for the platforms with Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh. But you're also announced even before this purchase was made that they were going to throw their hat in the sports card Arena as well. Even though he Bay has purchased them, they will remain their own company, and operate, you know, business as you know, as usual. So nothing changing their. And for those that don't know, it, A little part-time Wolverine, and it's been a few occasions. I brought employees to the main headquarters here in Syracuse. So, interesting story there now owned by eBay, our Feature Presentation, all right, so I'm gonna go through some of what I see happening in. Let's put the time span. In the next one, to two years in happy. Again, disclaimer, these are only my opinion. Also, some of these, I quite frankly, I hope I'm wrong at, but I also have to be honest as well, folks. So, some of these at, I don't want to be right? It's just where I see, you know, where the Hobbies hat. So there's the disclaimer. These are my opinions again. I'm not going to be right. Obviously had all these. It's just kind of 

Fun will be fun. Lookie here to down the line and see, you know, where I was right in where I was wrong. So, first things first, let's let's get out the crystal ball here. All right, where's the on switch out? Right here? All right. Fanatics will acquire Panini. Some belief that the deals already done. If they are just waiting to announce it, I thought that you might hear about it during a national didn't come out. 

7:28 PM
Out again, just Pinion of that, just me but some other folks too. So we'll start off with, you know, Fanatics acquiring Panini along those lines. You know, what will have we seen the past year were to really take hold right Partnerships team-ups, mergers Acquisitions, that's going to continue and it may contain you more. So as a means to survival as the market, softens as things come back to You know, air quotes normal, at least companies May pair up to sort of whether it be downsize or, you know, just get, you know, pull all the talent into one, you're going to see more of that. You know, we've seen seed Investments, be a big thing, right? You know, venture capital is poor. Lot of money into certain, you know, businesses or platforms. I think that 

Can use, but I think it continues on a lesser level as some of these, you know, venture capitalist investors kind of see where the market is and maybe headed they may get a little gun-shy. I'm pulling the trigger with their their money so we may see less of that seed Investments. Not going to go away. We may see less and we meet may see less Millions when When it does happen, the high-end Market will, you know, still be thriving, stuff is still, those kind of things are still going to, you know, bring millions of dollars. But, you know, like we talked about during the new segment. You know, certain things may not bring what analysts predict, but maybe those analysts will adjust and lower their, you know, projections if you will. So we're going to still see million dollar cards. But maybe we will temper some of those expectation. All right, we we all know about the BBC e issues. I think we see a new entity throw their hat in the ring on wax authentication. I don't know who it will be. I something tells me might be an existing company that just expands what they do, but I think the opportunities too big and that door has been opened by BBC easy. Themselves and someone else is going to try now. I don't know if they can be successful but I think there's going to be a new new entrant in the wax authentication Arena. We're going to see more card shows. You're going to see more card shows and I'm not just talking the bigger ones are the ones that want to compete, you know, against the national or be like the national, but we're going to see more even local smaller type of that's almost like 

Trade night, pop-up card shows and it'll be up, you know, up to the market to Bear out whether the, you know, the hobby will support those. Frankly, I'm cheating a little bit on this one folks, but n FTS will decline will continue. I think the bloom is sort of off that Rose. You know, people who love it, will continue to partake in it and I think they will Will be some Exodus out of that ditch. I don't think you know, will it go away? I'm not. No, I'm not saying that but it'll just sort of be on the back of the bus and people who love it. Who continue to enjoy it, but many will climb to exit stage left. Speaking of exiting stage left, people will start to leave the happy as this. 

Prices go down. You know, a lot of people not, you know, a percentage of people get in the happy. When they see these cars going from millions of dollars, they buy a couple you know, 200, 300 400 dollar boxes, hoping to hit. Hit it big almost like a lottery ticket and when that doesn't happen, they're going to, you know, they're going to exit almost as fast as they came in or you know, they're going to leave. So this disk Going to be. People leaving the hobby, that's always the case, right? That's kind of a layup to. And there always will be about people actor. Right there. Always will be as fanatic, put their plan in place to grow the hobby. 10 times. We can debate whether that's even possible, but that's their, that's their stated goal, you know? There's going to be cards all over the place, right? We're seeing them now and most of the lids we're seeing them again. In Walmart Target some targets at, pick him back up, we're going to see him in places Walgreens, it's going to be in your face. That's that's kind of Fanatics Mo. Here's the. Put those cards is many places to get the exposure to people who don't know about them to impulse buy it. Maybe we're going, you know, got another prediction, we're going to see card stores in sporting arenas. You know whatever regardless of sport. 

Baseball stadiums, basketball Arenas, hockey arenas, football stadiums. You know much like the, you know, the pro shop that has your jerseys and your, you know, barbecue stuff at all. Those trinkets of your favorite team, I think, Fanatics just going to start to work their way using their, you know, relationships are going to see, you know, even card stores in arenas. I don't know if they can do. Do it that quickly and wanted to years. But I'll say that this episode that's where what that being said, right? We came out of a period where every product was a homerun, almost right? You can buy it at one level in three, four, five, sometimes more times your money if you didn't open it and resold it on the secondary market, we've seen those days. Or sort of over. And so, you know, not every product is going to be a home run, some products will actually lose. It might be better if you like a product and maybe some that you're better off waiting as the price starts to come down. You know, you've got to make your own obviously decisions on that, but you know, Montgomery Club is an example. That's right. You know, year or two ago with Montgomery Club, everything triple quadruple And in price and we've seen that has changed obviously people in the Montgomery Club. Know exactly what I'm talking about. Now you sort of got to pick what you really want to buy with those exclusive offerings, either you want to buy it because you want it yourself or you got to weigh out whether it's worth, what to charge it because we've seen tops raise their offering prices this year. Montgomery exclusive operates. We've seen the Club raise their membership prices as well. So that will also be you know, so there here's my prediction for the next year, with Montgomery Club, you're going to raise their entry price, their membership price again and they're offering prices on their exclusive Montgomery club members offering. So we're going to be going to be a double hit raised the price to be a member, they're going to raise her up and price which now you know, as Is up to you and me to decide. Is this club worth what it may cost, four five six hundred dollars a year now, and we be on the individual to do that cost assessment. You know, for me, I think if it hits that five six hundred dollar markets, really? I really will have to think about it, and I would tend to lean know, especially when I feel like on the, it's on the piggyback of that. They're going to raise the offering price is of those exclusive items anyway. So is it worth this next? Prediction is one, I kind of like because it's something I've already done I really started doing it about two years ago, and we're going to see the trend with collectors really slant towards vintage, I believe, I think it started, I take it continues to National I saw young man. Probably, you know, Between. Anyone had his eye on case, full of modern. He went to a vintage table that it went to a vintage table, that had a lot of vintage, but also modern an ultra-modern and he asked the gentleman, he, you know, the dealer. He basically told the dealer, I don't want to have anymore ultra-modern, I want to just do vintage, would you be interested in any of this ultra-modern, either to buy it outright or trade for some of your vintage? Each inventory. Now I didn't stick around and be nosing watch whether deal happen or not but I actually I've seen that a couple times at the national I've seen it. Even at my local show here is the trend is really more. People are starting to look at vintage as I don't want to say untapped but maybe a safer play and you know just what all the new stuff coming out. It becomes sort of a blur. Again, I've always done vintage so I'm not new to the party. But the last about two years ago, I really started to go rather than like 60/40 70/30 modern to Vintage. I've really almost went to 100% and most of the the newer product that I open is is for review purposes now. So I don't, you know, I'll buy some new singles, you know, like I'm looking for some kid. Andy pickets, I'll just buy some of those but I'm really focused, you know, my PC, which is all the fame grated rookies in all the sports. So that's where I've really almost went 100%. I think you're going to see more people do that. And not only just the older side, but I think we're going to see some of the younger set. So are, you know, raise that pennant and run with that flag as well. And one quick note to on that, you know, it's 

The end up at my shows here, in Syracuse with your big Fairground. Shows quite it. Pretty decent, attendance. Even with the Vintage that I sell, I've told us a lot of younger collectors, buying some of my vintage show. That's a great sign. I love to see it from a selfish point of view, but I think that trend is going to continue and even more. So all right content creation, it's much like to have Be right. There's going to be people leaving and new people coming in. So there's going to be you know some YouTube shows that stop putting out content, there's going to be audio podcast like this one that you'll notice may start to fall off, right? Hey the episode didn't come out today, maybe it starts to dwindle and then go to Funk. We're going to see, you know, contact creation, some some shows kind of go by the wayside and Like I said, just with the Hobby People lead people come in, we're going to see new shows. We're going to see new YouTube and audio podcast as well. And so the waters are still going to be full and, you know, coming in now and to me, it's even more difficult than when I started in 2018. So it's gonna be tough. It's going to be tough, but the market Bears it out, right? The listenership people. 

7:41 PM
Loading. That will bear out, who survives and who doesn't that being said? It's something I've talked about it done episodes about, you know, being swallowed up by this hobby, being swallowed up by content creation. Right? I've talked about, I've had dealer friends of mine that have gotten divorced because they're on the road doing shows, you know, every week, every weekend, and you know, wifey doesn't seem no more, they're missing their kids. Sporting events, dance recitals. And you know the wife says enough's enough and you married to two card shows. You're not married to me anymore. And I've seen that firsthand and up close. We've seen that in the hobby, right? We've seen people posted on social media going through divorce. We've seen a fairly big time content creator announced on. I literally his channel. That is his wife. Has filed for divorce, right? This isn't that a myth? This is proven, you know, fat. When people get into this hobby, sometimes I get consumed they don't even know it right? Sometimes you don't even realize it. If, you know, I had a little stretch here with this show where I was doing stuff every day to wear my wife said, hey, you know, I got to see anymore. What's going on, right? We worked out sort of with a whiteboard and a schedule and 

That sort of thing all good, but it can happen, right? You know, so we're going to see divorces. I hate to say it continue because of having things and again there's more to it than just that would relationships, right? I'm sure. It's not just that but, you know, people get involved in doing the show. Getting involved with your collections if they're dealer to get involved, setting up traveling to multiple shows a week. A month and not being home. You do a show and you get into your show so much that shit you're missing out or not paying attention to other things it happens. And it's going to continue to happen. I've seen, you know, I'm not without mentioning names and fairness, you know, I've seen content creators that I know that I was friends with and, you know, their social medias would post their kids and went here. Here and then it just became, you know, all show stuff and no more family of a suddenly, you know, which is not good. That's the, you know, again, I don't live there, I don't, you know, I don't know, all the behind-the-scenes stuff up. We're going to see that Trend. Unfortunately, continue, and I hope it doesn't, but I think we'll. So right. Let's close on a upbeat, happy prediction. And when I strongly believe the people, Are going to continue to enjoy this hobby. Have fun in the hobby? That's what it's all about, right? In the communities will get bigger, your friends was within those communities, will get larger, and that's the fun part of the having that's going to continue for, as long as I be, it's going to be around another, you know, to have, he's not dead. It's just, you know, everyday prices. Try to take come down, go up the prices, do change. It is what it is. You make it just so people are going to still enjoy the hobby. I'm enjoying the hobby immensely. Sometimes I change up or pivot kind of what I what I do, but I've still enjoyed having. That's that's the one thing I'll close with you know is enjoy the Hobby and you can change, right? Beauty, if you're doing something that's annoying, you You or you don't enjoy it. No, more try, something different think of what else you can do to instill, enjoy the happy. So there's my predictions. Some of them might be right. Some of them might be wrong. Some of them I'm hoping Iraq because they're not good predictions, but about us, guys. That's what you get for me. But take a real quick break. But when we come back, I'm going to give out some closing. Thoughts, don't go away chickens. Always 

That's, You don't suppose God Nation book a Stockyard for the new release schedule, our blog all show episodes and so much more. All right, let me put my crystal ball away, call it in episode, you know, give me some feedback stuff. You agree on disagree, add additional stuff. You see right? That's what's fun. Is that that discussion about the hobby we love and care about right? Again, like I said in the open, I hope some of the stuff I mentioned doesn't happen and I'm wrong, but that's just, you know, I'm an honest and genuine guy. So I'm going to kind of call in like eh, 

Is right and so we'll see how this all plays out, you know. I'm also the same guy that said you know pre-pandemic when they were talking about it hit and US soil that you know, brace yourself cards are cards are going to be in trouble, right? We saw obviously the opposite happened in the Big Time way, so that's what's fun about predictions, right? Sometimes you're wrong and it's better to be wrong. Sometimes you're right. And You know, it's fun to just kind of make your own assessments and so, you know, what say, you agree. You disagree got some additional that I didn't cover reach out to us, at any of our social media, you can email us and all that fun stuff. So thanks for listening and we'll see you next time for happy. Quick hits on Mondays and don't forget about our bigger shows. 

Four Star Nation every Friday with an interview guest. So with that being said, be well, take care and we'll see you soon.