Card Mensches E15 Very Good Players We Advise Caution On

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SPEAKER 2: Hey, I'm David Black and I'm John Newman.

SPEAKER 2: Welcome to All right. Episode 15, we lasted 15 at no one killed each other, at least not yet. So there'll be 15 in the books. I'm John Newman as the intro said, and that is still Danny Black. How are you doing, Danny? I would like to say I.

SPEAKER 3: Pulled that off flawlessly.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah, we, they, we're gonna rehire the producers was getting it right again.

SPEAKER 3: Right. I was, I was, I think I was about to lose my job. So good to be good. Good to, good to nail one.

SPEAKER 2: So we, you know, we, we did a list, last, last episode of, of card matches with the, with the, you know, top 10 Jewish major league baseball players of all time. We're gonna have a list today where it's not a ranking list but overrated players and players to buy you beware. So what, what this is, is, is guys that are pretty good players.

SPEAKER 2: Obviously, you can't pick a AAA mediocre player and then say, hey, I would be careful here, doesn't make a whole lot of sense, right? So these are, are fairly popular players pretty good ball players. But when it comes to the hobby, I, they're just not, there's things that make me say buyer beware or, you know, purchase at your own, at your own risk. So, laughing at the comment from Mike Petty over that was my.

SPEAKER 3: High school career.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. So maybe that'll be a future, a future episode. Not tonight again, Danny, this is our own personal opinion. You know, we don't want to offend anyone if we name a player who someone P CS or super collects. It's not, it's not, a, a personal, it's just our own opinions.

SPEAKER 2: This is not, you know, if you buying them or you collect them, keep, keep enjoying the hobby, as, as, as you wish and, and this is just list that we put together. We did not share, our list So we may have some in common. That'll be interesting to see there.

SPEAKER 2: We're gonna go, where you pick you, you mentioned a guy first and I'll mention the guy after you and then we'll come back, to you, obviously, chat room chime in with your own opinions or, tell us how we're wrong or that sort of thing. So, then anything to add before we get this party started? Well, I think we're.

SPEAKER 3: Definitely gonna get them wrong. So the question is, is how many do we actually get right?

SPEAKER 3: Pre predicting player performance is hard. Predicting card value is hard.

SPEAKER 3: And I think what we're doing here is, you know, saying, hey, here's where you might get a false positive or some, you know, I love that buyer beware statement. So, I'm interested to hear your list and, I hope I don't hurt your feelings with some of the ones on my list. So I think it'll, I think it'll be interesting.

SPEAKER 2: All right. You, are you ready? You want to throw out the first guy?

SPEAKER 3: Yeah, I will.

SPEAKER 3: I'm gonna, I'm gonna say that if you're gonna buy cards there, there's gonna be not a lot of runway.

SPEAKER 3: And I think he, he, he's passed the, his card prime.

SPEAKER 3: And that's Mookie Betts and I know that might seem sacrilegious, but I think he's not the key player on the team since he's been with the Dodgers. He hasn't had more than 16 stolen bases, since 2018, I think it is.

SPEAKER 3: So he's just not the same player. He was in Boston.

SPEAKER 3: He put up a 10 more season before he became a free agent and he's just not been the same player. So I think you're gonna look at a guy with, with, you know, maybe a fantastic career, you know, certainly, you know, a Red Sox Hall Of Famer, Team Hall Of Famer. But, I don't know that there's much more runway on his career for his cards.

SPEAKER 2: He's not on my list. I don't necessarily disagree. I think he's, he's very good. I think there's still some upside, you can buy him. I think he's still got some years, obviously to play in the league and, and maybe put together a potential another one or two MVP type type year.

SPEAKER 2: So he didn't make my list, but I get where you're coming from. When, when you mentioned Mookie Betts, he was probably on my radar. He just not, he didn't fit the criteria to make my final 10 sort of buyer beware. He was, he was in the mix, but I, I gave him a, a hall pass. So, you know, but I get it.

SPEAKER 3: Yeah, I mean, for me, I guess the biggest thing is, and, and like you said, this is not enough on, on the players he feels like he's on the backside of his career. Iii, I don't, you know, statistically that, you know, it's not terrible. But, I, I, it seems like his prime was back in Boston.

SPEAKER 3: So, yeah.

SPEAKER 2: Ii, I think you're right there. I think he, you know, he kind of made a name for himself in Boston. You're waiting really for that huge year that the Dodgers got him for. I, I agree with you. I agree with you there. All right, I'm gonna do mine and I'm gonna, I'm gonna do probably the most controversial one, Danny right off the bat here.

SPEAKER 2: This and, you know, and get it out of the way. This one might be the one I take some abuse on from people who either live or, or listening to it Monday on the podcast. And, and again, remember before I, I know I'm dragging this out, remember to be on this list. You have to be a good player. You know, you can't say like Thomas Nito, you know, the backup Mets catcher.

SPEAKER 2: And I mean, no one's really, you know, unless you're really a, a super Thomas Neto fan. So these guys are all in their own, right? So let me get to my first one, Juan Soto. That's right, Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres and, and let me, let me explain why he had three great years at, at the age of from, from 2019, 2020 21 and he's kind of been quiet for Juan Soto the last couple years.

SPEAKER 2: And you know, goes, believe me, I have him on my Fantasy League for the last three years that he has weeks where he's kind of disappears and he's, you know, for being Juan Soto and, and you know how he's revered and looked at, he, he leaves a little bit to be desired. Now, believe me, anyone that has a fan of a team would love to have him on the team.

SPEAKER 2: I'm just saying from us, you know, there are moments where he just kind of is disappears and, and we got those three, those three years that were great and it's, he's kind of settled back down and he was at, you know, he had a stretch last year that many were even questioned. Like is maybe a flash in the pan.

SPEAKER 2: Like, can he get back to that level again? And he's playing a little bit better this year. But you know, you're that, that ceiling is already very high and I, I, you know, I don't know if he can crash through it any more than he already has. So, that's my first, this guy. It's a big one and, you know, I love him. Right? I didn't know that. But now I do.

SPEAKER 3: So I, I wasn't sure if we were gonna play this today, but IIIII, I disagree with you. And I think it's a reminder to the audience, you know, of, of what they should take when they listen to listen to these list.

SPEAKER 4: Welcome to the failure segment where John and Danny share their sure to go wrong.

SPEAKER 2: Hey, listen, I, I hope I'm wrong. He's not, like I said, he's on my Fantasy League and he's actually playing better, but he just has, last year was really bad.

SPEAKER 2: And, he has stretches where he's just not that guy, people think he is and it makes you really wonder it, you know? Did he just catch lightning in the bottle for a couple of years? I, I hope that you're right.

SPEAKER 3: Now, I will say from a card standpoint, I still think he's got a lot of potential in front end. That's the only thing I'll add.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah, no doubt. But his cards are pretty pricey. So, like, it's not like you can get in at the lower level and, and have it pay off. So that's, you know, that's a factor in this list too. This is a, this is more of a hobby and sports list combined where like last show was just all sports and, and, and, and talent. This is, this is, has more of a hobby element, to the list. So, your next guy?

SPEAKER 3: Well, I'm gonna change the order that I was gonna read them and, and, and these are in no particular order just to be clear, because I think there's something wrong with a certain team and I think it's causing a lot of guys to maybe underperform. And you and I, have both picked, San Diego Padres, except I've chose Manny Machado.

SPEAKER 3: He's a guy who's got all the talent in the world could win an MVP any season and you can pick up his rookie card for, for next to nothing. The hobby has, seems to have no love for him at all. He seems to have virtually no, no appeal, you know, as a chase or anything like that.

SPEAKER 3: And, and I think there's reasons to be concerned at this point in his career after this many years to not have him take that next step and to not have any hobby. Love I would say is as good as he is. He's definitely a buyer beware.

SPEAKER 2: I actually like that one. I don't have him on my list but again, he's another guy that was on my top 20 when I narrowed it down. The 10, I won't argue that I think I kept him out, Danny because I, I, while I agree with you, I also think he's been pretty steady, like he pretty puts up consistent numbers.

SPEAKER 2: I just don't think he's had that like MVP type year that many people are, are kind of waiting for. But he, he is consistent. So I didn't put him on, my list. But, I, I can't argue another good pick. Just we have different ones. All right.

SPEAKER 3: I'm gonna, yeah, I have a question for you. Do you think the hobby has any love for him?

SPEAKER 2: I think there are people, I think there are certain collectors that do collect Manny Machado. I've had him come up to my dad. I think he's collected more than you think. Is he collected in the same way, Mike Trout is or, or Juan Soto? No, you know what I mean? Not on that level. Iii I get that. You're trying to say that, but I think there are, there are people who, who still collect him.

SPEAKER 2: You know, just from his, his start in Baltimore, which you're, you're very familiar with as well. All right, another big name, I'm getting kind of my bigger names, right out, right out the gate here.

SPEAKER 2: And, and, and this one's probably not as controversial as Juan. So he, he broke the home American League home run record last year and that's Aaron Judge and I, you know, before people, you know, crucified me for that one. What do we know historically with big framed baseball players? What happens?

SPEAKER 3: The, the, it's hard to, it's hard to stay healthy.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah, they start to break down. We've already seen that with Aaron Judge. He's, he's, he's only had two full seasons.

SPEAKER 2: If you look at his career, he's only played two years where he played basically the, the whole year and, and he's, he's all, it's, it always seems like you got to take him out last year was one of those two years and then hence breaking that home run record, but most years it seems like he's gonna miss 20 to 30 games if not more like Mike Petty said.

SPEAKER 2: So I'm not saying he isn't good when he plays, he's excellent, but he misses time with injuries and he's as, as he gets older, I think those injuries, we, we've seen these bigger framed guys start to break down, you know, things start to clank around, right.

SPEAKER 2: And, so, Aaron Judging, I know Yankee fans and I'm not one of them, even though I'm in New York, I know Yankee fans are probably getting a picture of me ready to put on, on the dartboard.

SPEAKER 2: But he, he's been in the league since 2017 and he's played two full seasons. So that's one out of every three years. And, that's telling and that's telling and he's a young, he's a young player still. You know, what happens when he gets in his thirties.

SPEAKER 2: You know, well.

SPEAKER 3: I'm gonna take the hobby perspective again of his prices are also very high and so, you know, for him to keep it up, is, is a very high pace.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. Yeah, I, it's, and that's the thing. He probably, I know that's gonna sound crazy. He might have had the best year of his career already. Like, I think that's what you were alluding to in the last year. Right. He may never repeat that and then not only will, he may never repeat that year.

SPEAKER 2: He, you know, he's gonna probably miss more time as he gets older. So, you know, and, and Mike Pace says he's a nice guy. Right? But, you know, I just think when I saw what the Yankees paid him, you know, it looked like he was going to the San Francisco Giants and at the last minute, the Yankees kind of swooped in and, and, you know, made that deal for crazy money.

SPEAKER 2: I, I don't even remember what it was. I just said, you know, I get it because they didn't want him leaving the Yankees, but that's gonna be a deal at some point. They're gonna regret what, what he's getting paid in the time he's missing.

SPEAKER 3: I believe they gave him a third of central park. I'm not sure the.

SPEAKER 2: And the, and the umpire state.

SPEAKER 2: So if there's gonna be a time where that contract, like some of these big ones we've seen before, Paul and Alex Rodriguez and others where that contract is gonna be, they're gonna kind of regret it or, or without regretting it, they're gonna wish they didn't, weren't paying for what they were getting for their return on their, their investment, the contract.

SPEAKER 2: So, so far so good. But, you know, we know how things can change. So, I think he's a, a candidate for that. Ok.

SPEAKER 3: Ii, I can definitely see where you're coming from. I think he has a chance. You know, they still play him in center field. I think they have a chance to, or, you know, to get him out of the outfield if they want to and, and DH him and protect him a little bit.

SPEAKER 3: But the numbers he put up last year, I mean, from a hobby perspective, I agree with you, it's gonna be hard to, to, to keep up the pace based, you know, from, from last year. So, I, I see where you're coming from and that can, can very much grow with that side of it.

SPEAKER 3: Now I'm gonna take it a different perspective. Here's one where, where the hobby you could hear echoes and crickets in the room. How about two guys who are in the top 10 on the all time list for saves Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen. And you could find their rookie cards probably in a dollar then. Yeah.

SPEAKER 2: But I, you know, I'm gonna, like, are people really collecting relievers though? You know what I mean?

SPEAKER 3: Like, they, they, they are probably both gonna be Hall Of Famers.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. But that, but who, like Lee Smith, I mean, we can Trevor Hoffman.

SPEAKER 3: But that's why it's buyer be in my mind.

SPEAKER 2: I mean, listen, I, I'm not a Craig Kimbrough fan with the, the bird stance before he pitches or whatever that is. It's goofy. But, yeah, they, they are dollar B gay. So I won't argue with them. You're putting them, you're giving them one slot, you're just putting them on the president. Vice president.

SPEAKER 3: I'm, I'm, I'm combining them because I think it's the same thing is that I'm with you as I think that people, if, if, if they're not aware or if they haven't thought about it, relievers don't carry any weight in the hobby.

SPEAKER 3: They, they really, they really just don't, even if we're talking, what could be future Hall Of Famers, which is unbelievable to say. When was the last time you said guys that, you know, could be future Hall Of Famers have absolutely no appeal.

SPEAKER 2: All right, from that standpoint, I agree with you. But, you know, it's just that, I don't know if they're collectable, you know, just because people just generally not saying to everybody, but most people don't collect relievers. But, I agree. They're Hall Of Famers that won't have a lot of desirability. All right. Go to, go with, my next guy here again in no particular order Chris Bryant of the Colorado Rockies.

SPEAKER 2: Now, when they think about this guy, when he was on the Cubs, he was on a fever pitch on a Hall Of Fame track, right? And you think, ok, he goes to the Giants plays one year there and then signs as a free agent with the Rockies in Coors Field. Right. He's gonna hit 40 home runs, he's gonna hit like fly balls that go out and he's gonna be Chris Bryant again and he's helping a, he's got a power outage.

SPEAKER 2: He looks like he's on the back nine of his career and I don't think he necessarily is. Maybe he is, you know, he's, he has 100 and 47 career home runs now. He's 31 years old. And I think for those who start years old, you know, and I, I even listen, I was guilty of that too. I thought he was gonna go to Colorado and kind of resurrect, resurrect his career, you know.

SPEAKER 2: And, you know, he's, he hasn't lived up to what he was when he was, you know, with the Cubs, his best season might have been his rookie year right there. His rookie year or, or the second year, second year. You're right. You're right. And since then he's been sort of lost. Like you might see him on a Dairy Queen commercial, but he's not the Chris Bryant that you used to revere.

SPEAKER 3: And there was a ton of hobby, love for him when he was coming up as a rookie. Remember all, all the, controversy about them holding him down for service time and everything else.

SPEAKER 3: You know, it it, it seems like small potatoes now.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. And, and, you know, it's, it's, it's weird but, you know, he's not on a Hall Of Fame track, 100 and 47 home runs and not in this day and age and, and then, you know, not only is he not hitting home runs, Danny, he's not hitting at home runs at Coors Field and that's like a double whammy. You know what I mean? So, I think there's, there's something going on. I don't know, mechanics. I don't know what it is.

SPEAKER 2: You know, but, has lived up to the building and, makes the list and I put him on the list because he's still revered in, in collectors. There's a lot of people that like Chris Bryant that I think Chris that think that it's the same Chris Bryant that's with the Cubs and he's no longer that guy, at least right now. Can he, can he turn things around? I, I don't think so, but, you know, I don't have to do what he does.

SPEAKER 3: From a hobby perspective, you know, he, he's probably fallen.

SPEAKER 3: I mean, gosh, it's been almost 10 years in his career now.

SPEAKER 3: And it's probably been downhill almost every year that his stuff's lost money.

SPEAKER 3: So I like that one on the list.

SPEAKER 3: I'm going to take a time out and pay a couple of bills. Stay right there.

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SPEAKER 3: Ok. Now, you gotta promise not to get upset at my next one.

SPEAKER 2: I got a feeling I know who it is and if it, if it is who I think we, we, he made both of our lists.

SPEAKER 3: 90 strikeouts and 16 walks as a hitter.

SPEAKER 2: This is maybe it's not who I'm thinking of.

SPEAKER 3: I, I don't think it is. I've been, I've been saving this one. A lot of people think it's a breakout year for him. So that's why I'm putting the buyer beware label on Luis Robert that despite.

SPEAKER 2: My guy, my guy, that's why I can't really argue yet. I think there can, I, you know, I can, I, I hope there's some day I can make an argument because I still like Luis Robert. But yeah, I get it while you make your list. He didn't make my list a little homer. Is there? I, I like him.

SPEAKER 2: Could, if they could, if I put him on the list based on the track record. Sure. But I still have faith. He's still young. And, so he didn't make my list. But I did, I thought you were going in a different direction and I still think we do have a guy, in common or two, but that wasn't, that wasn't, that wasn't the guy.

SPEAKER 3: I thought I might catch you off guard on that one. And I, I actually really like Louis Robert and I would say if you own him and you're trying, and you're worried about selling him, sell him now. I mean, he might meet the All Star team.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. Yeah, he's having not so bad year. So, all right, here's my next guy and I have, I will preface this. I have a lot of his stuff and not because I bought him, but whenever I was open and stuff, I would always pull his, his rookies or his auto. So it's almost like I collect them, but I actually don't, it just looks that way and, you know, he, he, he's the son of a former major league player.

SPEAKER 2: I think that built a little hype up when he came into the league, on a young inexperienced team. And, he just hasn't been the guy that I think people thought they were gonna see. And that's Cab Brian Hayes of the Pirates. And, you know, you know, they were like, hey, this guy's gonna be better than his dad.

SPEAKER 2: Well, you know what I have this, if they were both the same age and this was a fantasy draft, I'd take Charlie Hayes over cab Brian right now. He's, he's hitting, he hits in the two forties. He, I would remember him foul, skinny. Like he left the, he, he's hitting, he hits every year in the two forties.

SPEAKER 2: All I heard was he's gonna steal bases and kind of be a 2020 guy and he's not stealing, he's not even, he, he doesn't barely hit double digits and steals. He's hit single digit home runs every year. You look at his numbers. If, if I showed you his numbers and covered up his, his name, you'd be like, what's the big deal about this guy yet? He's still collected. People are still buying them.

SPEAKER 2: I just don't think he's gonna be what people thought. He, he, he was, you know what they, projected him as I think he got a lot of hype. And then I don't know if you remember last year, you know, I don't root against people, young man. Right. But last year there was a play where there was, they were running the bases on him.

SPEAKER 2: He's playing third base and the guy there was gonna be a play at there and he's putting seeds in his mouth instead of covering the bag. And then after the game, he said, you know, he just kind of it like it was instead of owning it and saying my bad, it never happened again. I had a, you know, a, a moment lapse of, of reality, you know.

SPEAKER 2: So I just lost a lot of respect for him after that play and when I look at the body of work, he's a single digit home run guy. He's a single digit steal guy who bets 2 40 they're paying him, you know, for, I'll, I'll say this, the Pirates don't pay anyone big money, but they're paying him big money for what the Pirates normally pay. He's like their big money.

SPEAKER 3: Well, the funny thing is his strength. It really is supposed to be his defense.

SPEAKER 3: And, and, you know, it brings up another hobby point here, which is the hobby doesn't care about defense.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah.

SPEAKER 3: You know, and that's just something to consider, you know, it, it, it, it's not really a, not, not really a thing.

SPEAKER 3: I did wanna, there was one comment here.

SPEAKER 3: That's Dan Ryan.

SPEAKER 3: Hey, Dan, evening guys, early home run derby guesses. And here's the point that I, that I like, that seems to be the best midseason 48 hour bump opportunity.

SPEAKER 3: Well, I, I just wanted to make a comment. I think it is as far as things that are planned, the best opportunity is when somebody does something amazing that goes unplanned, you know, a four homer game or, you know, no hitter or something like that.

SPEAKER 3: But as far as planned activities, the home run derby, I, I is closed but it is a small window and it really depends on the player, but I, I like that comment and it's an interesting perspective.

SPEAKER 3: Ok. You ready for my next one? Let's hear it.

SPEAKER 3: Jacob DeGrom.

SPEAKER 2: All right. This is before you say your Degra spiel. It's sad. I love Jacob Degra. I love him. I honestly do guess what? He made my list too, but go, go ahead first.

SPEAKER 3: Yeah, you know, Adam Jones, the former Oriole outfield or made a comment that just being able to post every day, is, is a skill and a talent within itself.

SPEAKER 3: Jacob DeGrom for as good as he's been, has not been able to stay healthy. Unfortunately, it's not a knock on him.

SPEAKER 3: He, he is able to do amazing things with the baseball. A few human beings can do. But his body has paid the toll, unfortunately lost for, for another season.

SPEAKER 3: Already, so, may maybe when healthy, the most dominant pitcher in the game.

SPEAKER 3: But I, I it's hard to, you know, to, to say his name without saying when healthy. So the hobby. I don't think he has the love long term for Degra. I, I think whatever love there was in New York. I, I think he, I think this is definitely the buyer beware label.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah.

SPEAKER 2: I'm a Degra guy. I've got the stuff in the case. That's actually right behind me. Some autograph stuff. Love him. Love him as a person. I think he's a great guy. I think you said it. He's a great pitcher. When he's on the mound, there's where the rub is, right.

SPEAKER 2: You know, when I, when I wanted the Mets to keep him, but I didn't want the Mets to overpay the Rangers overpaid, he's on the DL, this is kind of what the Mets saw when they didn't resign him. And a lot of Mets fans were upset and there was rumblings from internally with the Mets saying, listen, you'll see why they didn't come out and really say it like that. Exactly.

SPEAKER 2: It's pretty rude to say that, but they just like we couldn't justify the contract that the Rangers gave and now the Rangers can't justify at least in the moment the contract that the Rangers gave. So he's a great pitcher, but the injuries are starting to add up and right when you buy pitchers or collect pitchers, right, 70 80% of the time the hope is that they have a Hall Of Fame career, right?

SPEAKER 2: And early on it looked like he was on that track, on the easy track and that thing's been derailed quick and, unless he can put a bunch of 567 years together where he plays full seasons, he's not gonna make the Hall Of Fame and that's where that value, comes in. And, so will I, will I buy an occasion of the, because I like them.

SPEAKER 2: Sure will I buy it because I think I'm, you know, I'm gonna buy it for 40 it's gonna be 400. No, because I don't think that's, that's the, the case anymore. So, you know, I'm, I like, I like him personally. It pay, I winced when I wrote his name on my list, Danny. But we both picked him as a reason for that.

SPEAKER 3: I, I wanted to get you warmed up a little bit before I said it out loud. Ii I needed to ease you into it.

SPEAKER 3: But, but I think, you know, you agreeing, proves that people just, you know, it just really is a buyer beware and somebody should have told the Texas Rangers buyer beware.

SPEAKER 2: So, yeah, they were going for it and listen, they're in first place without them without them. So, so they're doing, I can't criticize them too much. They're doing something right. It's just not the, the grim signing.

SPEAKER 3: Well, they're counting on, on ne to stay healthy. So we'll see, we'll see how long that goes.

SPEAKER 3: Could have put him on the bar beware list as well. Yeah.

SPEAKER 3: Do you wanna go give your next one?

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. And let's, let's go back to the Yankees and I'm not picking on the Yankees here. But, Anthony Rizzo again, you know, a lot of times he gets kind of, him and Chris Bryant kind of are like, kind of get lumped together even though their careers in Chicago went different paths.

SPEAKER 2: He's 34 years old now. The dude strikes out like there's no tomorrow. Like he should be wearing glasses. He's batting 2 24 right now or, or, you know, at last check.

SPEAKER 2: He had some great years between the years of 2016 and 2019. But again, since 2019, he's, he's not been, you know, the guy that I think many people thought he, he was and what the Yankees thought they were getting. So I think when you look at, I think, I think the name brings more caveat than, than what he does, what his resume, does and I know people collect him.

SPEAKER 2: I, I know Sue is, is probably, you know, just, unfriended me because she's a big Anthony Rizzo guy. But I'm just being honest here, right. This is, is a guy who's highly collected or, or, I don't know, maybe highly he was when he was younger when he was, I guess it's a similar to Chris Bryant deal.

SPEAKER 2: The, the numbers have come down, he's gotten older. The numbers have come down and you just start to wonder, is it ever gonna be the same again? And I just don't yet. I think he's revered enough in the hobby. To, to be a buyer. Beware for me. That's what this list is. Just beware.

SPEAKER 2: What, you know, if you want to buy them because you love him and he's your favorite guy and you met him and he did a cam, you know, I get all that. But if you're, you know, if you're buying because you think like, hey, I'm gonna flip this down years down the road or it's gonna be a potential Hall Of Famer. That's where I say, be careful here and that's where my 10 guys are coming coming.

SPEAKER 3: Ok.

SPEAKER 3: I have two more sharing one spot. Do you wanna throw out another name?

SPEAKER 2: All right, I, I, I'll, I'll just so the next guy moles another young guy, another young guy who does have time to, you know, write the, write the story, right? But o'neil Cruz for the Pirates. I mean, he shows, he shows flashes but again, he's, he's hits for low average, he's been injured and he's just shown flashes and he hasn't really put and again, he's young.

SPEAKER 2: Can it still happen? And a lot of the guys on my list, he's one of the younger guys that can get off this list, he can fight his way off this list. But right now he's not fighting his way off this list and that's why he's on it.

SPEAKER 2: You know, when, when you say o'neil Cruz, everyone has like game breaker or, or they think Juan Soto or the next, you know, young superstar and he just hasn't lived up and I, and I just wonder, you know, not everyone can live up to the building and I just don't know, you know, if, if he's ever gonna be what certain people think he is.

SPEAKER 3: Well, and this might tie into, into Dan's coming here. How much stock do you guys put into the coaching staffs in relation to young prospects?

SPEAKER 3: I think it depends on the situation but it can have a big impact. Certain organizations are known to, to be very, you know, good developers of talent. Some organizations are known to work well with pitchers. Some organizations work well with, with, with veterans, you know, that come over. So, I think there's definitely, you know, something to that and the only reason I bring it up. Good evening Mark.

SPEAKER 3: And the reason I bring it up is with o'neill Cruz, he's got so much talent, but he's got such a unique build that I think there is pressure on that staff to coach him.

SPEAKER 3: The right way, I think, you know, he's really a unicorn in his, you know, playing shortstop at 67.

SPEAKER 3: So II I.

SPEAKER 2: Got a rifle, he's got a gun, he's got, he's got the tools, right? He's got the, the tool box in the tools are in there. But can you use them? Can you make it happen? That's what we're talking about to answer Dan's question. You know, about how much stock it's huge. It's a great point by, by Dan.

SPEAKER 2: And let's be honest, the Pittsburgh is probably not a great place to, to make it happen, with their, their payroll, their lack of payroll. You know, I can't say anything about their coaching staff either way. But, you know, with lack of payroll usually means they're not getting the highest quality of everything else.

SPEAKER 2: And, so, yeah, I'm sure that's a huge factor. And so, you know, would he, would o'neal Cruz be playing better in a, in a different city? I, I don't know. But I don't think playing in Pittsburgh is necessarily, a positive, you know, maybe a positive and he can crack the line up sooner.

SPEAKER 3: I'll tell you, I think the hobby loves Ono Cruz. And the last couple of shows I set up at, there was a lot of demand for his stuff. So, you know, if the buyer beware label on him, is interesting. I don't know if I agree with you completely on that one just yet because I think he's young and there's ways to go, but his prices were certainly very high.

SPEAKER 3: And, and I can't deny that at all. But, but a ton of demand for him and once again, you know, you just look at that building those skills.

SPEAKER 2: So, ok, you got two guys, you said?

SPEAKER 3: Yeah, and this hurts, man. I've been saving this one a as, as an Orioles fan.

SPEAKER 3: I, I think nationally the Orioles are starting to get some attention. The American League batting leader is Austin Hayes.

SPEAKER 3: Somewhere around 3 13, I, I think I have that correct and on the aisle right now, first baseman Ryan Moun Castle tied for the team lead in home runs.

SPEAKER 3: Ii, I just, I would say Byer beware on both of them. I think people, you know, Moun Castle was a big prospect. A lot of people think this is Austin Hayes's breakout year that they've been waiting for for a couple of years and as somebody who watches them, you know, consistently, I think they're incredibly talented.

SPEAKER 3: They both bring a lot to the table, but no card value would not try to buy low on them. I don't think there's a anywhere for their, for their stuff to go. And without a doubt, Austin Hayes has a chance to be an all-star and Mount Castle probably, you know, would have 15, 20 armor. Had he not gotten hurt?

SPEAKER 2: All right. Neither of these guys made my list. But you watch him more than I do. So I'm not gonna argue with you. I like Ryan Mad Castle. I, again, maybe it never happens for him but I thought, I thought it would.

SPEAKER 2: So, you know, I'm still holding out, I'm still holding out some hope, that he can put it together and have a kind of an All Star type career. But, you watch him every, almost every day. So I for me to argue against that would, wouldn't make a lot of sense.

SPEAKER 3: Yeah, the strikeouts once again are just through the roof. Ha ha has a hard time adjusting.

SPEAKER 3: But all the power in the world, so.

SPEAKER 2: All right. All right, my turn. Yeah. Go for it. All right. I don't know. He, I, I think he's fairly collected, especially in the Overseas market. So he made my list and that's another pitcher Yu Darvish and now Yu Darvish doesn't get hurt. That's not the problem with Yu Darvish. The problem with Yu Darvish is, look at his stats one year.

SPEAKER 2: He has like cy young numbers the next year. He looks like a, a mediocre pitcher and it's every other year, it's uncanny. So he has a great year, followed by a bad year, followed by a great year, followed by a bad year, followed by a great year. Look at his career. It's, it's, you, you, it's, it's uncanny and that's just not a recipe for success.

SPEAKER 3: I love that call, by the way, but he came in with so much hype. Do you remember how much hype he came in with?

SPEAKER 2: Yeah. Yeah. And he's a good pitcher. Well, he's a good pitcher but just, he's good this year and he's bad next year and it'll be good. The ne, the next year. It's, I call yo-yo stats. It's a yo-yo.

SPEAKER 2: Would you, would you ever buy?

SPEAKER 2: No, but I, I tend not to buy pitchers just as a rule. I, I break my own rule sometimes but I've never broke my rule with him. But if you're a fantasy leaguer and he just had a bad year, buy him cheap because he's about to have a good year and then don't, if you're a keeper league, don't keep him, let him go because he's gonna have a bad year, then buy, then get him the next year.

SPEAKER 2: Look at, go get, go get one of his baseball cards or Google it. To everyone out there, he, he has a good year followed by there like almost his whole career. It's it's, I, I was shocked when I looked at that.

SPEAKER 3: I just want to know what's going on in Sandy Diego that we've ended up with three Padres on the, on our list. Yeah, I don't know.

SPEAKER 2: I mean, I don't have three Padres but you're saying combined combined.

SPEAKER 3: We have three Padres.

SPEAKER 3: Soto Machado and Darvish.

SPEAKER 3: So now you, you said something, you said pitchers don't have value? I did make a list of three rules that I go by to try to stay away from as general buyer. Beware rules. So, can I give them the three rules kind of as 11 here?

SPEAKER 3: Ok. Stay away from pitchers, catchers and right-handed power hitting first baseman. Those three, you'll never get your money back.

SPEAKER 2: I, I won't disagree. I think that's pretty, pretty accurate statement.

SPEAKER 3: So, the, the, those and I, I think not all of the ones we're picking tonight but a lot of them, you know, we could have picked, would fit those rules. Yeah.

SPEAKER 2: Yeah, no doubt. I tried to pick and we're not done. I got, I think two more. I tried to pick guys that have some collective bill but like, I'm just like, you know, the crossing guard with the stop sign, like, hang on there a second, you know, you want to be careful here, that sort of, you know, mentality. So, go ahead. I think it's your turn.

SPEAKER 3: No, I just gave my, my three.

SPEAKER 3: Go ahead.

SPEAKER 2: All right. So my next guy and he's on the back nine of his career, but he's starting to, based on this year. Right? He's the 2020 American League MVP, Jose Abreu, he's 36 years old now and the reg, the regression, has started and many people, you know, still think he has a shot at the hall. But, you know, he's on my fantasy team and he didn't hit his first home run to like the second month of, of the year.

SPEAKER 2: He's got four now. He's batting 2 24. He's 36 years old and he's got 247 career home runs. Does he have enough left to cross that Hall Of Fame finish line? I don't think so. And so I do know people who collect Jose Abre based on like he was, he's gonna be a Hall Of Famer and I'm gonna get in on him before people. Kind of the cats out of the bed.

SPEAKER 2: Well, now I, now he's sort of sputtering a little bit and I don't think the cat ever comes out of the bag. I think the cat stays in the bag and I just think he's a, he's a guy and I, I know three or four people here, like they come to the shows I set up at and ask me, hey, what do you got? You got any new Jose at?

SPEAKER 2: And so I might be costing myself some sales here. I just don't think he's, you know, I just don't, I think he's, he's starting to regress and, you know, I think he's, his best years have been played and I think he's fall short of a Hall Of Fame career now.

SPEAKER 3: First of all, I I agree with you. I don't think he's anywhere near a Hall Of Famer, but I think his collectibility really also took a hit when you change cities when you get known to be tied to one city for so long and you're recorded in that city.

SPEAKER 3: I think the collectors, you know, you, you, you, you lose your collector base because now the white Sox fans may not collect him as much. The Houston fans probably don't have a real connection to him to collect him, you know, or certainly collect his white Sox cards. So for me, for almost different reasons, I would have a buyer beware, but I'm with you. I, I think he had a great start to his career.

SPEAKER 3: But, but talk about getting old quick.

SPEAKER 3: Do you have, do you have one more?

SPEAKER 2: I do have one more. Do you want me to say it?

SPEAKER 2: All right. Another young shortstop prospect guy talks, He talks a good game. If he could play as good as he talked, he would be an, a AAA legitimate all-star. He's with the Marlins and that's Jazz Chisholm. And like I said, he, he does steal, he is quick and, but, he's playing outfield now, matter of fact and they're, they're trying him there.

SPEAKER 2: But he's batting 2 29 and I've never seen a guy who bats that low each year talk that much, you know, and like to me, like, if I'm not, if I'm playing against him, I'm like, what's your bat? You know, when he's talking junk I'd be like, what do you, what's your, what's your career? Batting average? 2 20? What? You know?

SPEAKER 3: So, because I was terrible and I talked a lot so, other than that, I agree.

SPEAKER 2: So I just like, he's, he's, he's flashy, you know, and, again he's a guy that likes to chirp and, and, and, and, but he's, you know, there's a saying, right, his mouth is writing checks that his ass can't cash and, and I don't, I saved that one, for only certain people, but it really fits the jazz Chism kind of, of mentality.

SPEAKER 2: Like he, he talks like he's a ten-year all-star and yet he's far from that. And so I put him on my list, maybe a little bit out of spite for that. But I like when is it gonna happen where the, the, the play backs up, the speak and I, I don't know if it ever does because he speaks a lot. It'd be, have to be some big playing to match the, the level he, he does talking well, interesting.

SPEAKER 3: I, I still think there's hope for jazz, but I think there could be a very good chance he turns into D Gordon Jeri and prof far a lot of extremely athletic guys that have moved from infield to outfield and, and, and you know, never really found a home and never hit quite enough to carry it. So, yes, Mike, this list could be 100 long and, but, but we don't want, the show, show is not on our, the line of the Shields, the Shields.

SPEAKER 2: I remember the, he was pretty good people. Him, I think the line of the Shields, it's like a package deal. You get Marquis Gris and the line of the Shields, together.

SPEAKER 3: Yeah. And definitely, that's a name I haven't heard in a while.

SPEAKER 3: So that's your list. So, what are, what are the takeaways from this? Stay, stay away from, prospects that, that until they prove themselves and, dump vets before they go down too fast.

SPEAKER 2: I, I mean, if that's, if that's really what you're in it for, I guess that would be the template, right?

SPEAKER 2: You know, have fun. Right. And listen at the end of the day, collect, you know, this isn't to say, get rid of all your cards of this guy or, or I just told you I have Jacob DeGrom stuff. He made my list. I still love Jacob De Gram.

SPEAKER 2: So, hobby ever however you choose. But if, if financial interest is of interest to you, this is where you got to be careful with certain, these, these kind of guys because, you could, you could take one, you know, take one in the chops if you if you go overboard.

SPEAKER 3: All right. Well, we, we are pushing, I think, do double or, or goal time, tonight.

SPEAKER 3: Anything else that you wanted to add?

SPEAKER 2: No, just, hey, we, we got the national coming up and we, we can do a shameless plug. Hobby Pelusa starts, tomorrow, hobby hotline will be kicking that off, on bench clear at our normal time slots. You don't have to do anything too crazy. And, then, you know, I'll have, you're gonna have a hobby news daily on Sunday show and I'm gonna have Sports Car Nation, on Sunday as well.

SPEAKER 2: 2 p.m. Eastern. And, and Mark Coyle is in the, I don't know if he's still in the room. I think so. He's gonna be on the panel with yourself. Leighton Shelman from Just Collect And Jason Schwartz Heavy J Studios and we're gonna talk some vintage, we're gonna have a vintage round table and that will be Sunday at 2 p.m. Eastern. Honey, Bench Clear Network for Hobby Paua.

SPEAKER 3: And I just want to finish it with. Do you guys have any teams you will never buy guys from? And the answer is the Indianapolis Colts and from Baltimore. I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna check out on that one.

SPEAKER 2: I don't, yeah, I don't have any teams. You, you don't want me to finish what I'm gonna say. I really, that rule doesn't apply to me, but if I had to pick one, it'd be, it would be hard for me to buy some Ravens guys. I knew we.

SPEAKER 3: Were gonna end up there.

SPEAKER 3: I knew we were gonna end out there.

SPEAKER 2: I had to do it. I had to do it.

SPEAKER 3: It's, it's all, it's all fair in love in the AFC North. So, for everybody who joined in Tonight Live, it always appreciate all the comments. You know, the words getting around. The downloads have been unbelievable on the Monday releases. So to everybody who, who listens on the podcast, just thank you.

SPEAKER 3: The support and the feedback has just been great. So I just want to give a shout out and a thank you to everybody there and Mark, we will see you Sunday as well.

SPEAKER 2: Take care everybody.

SPEAKER 3: Thank you, take care. Have a good night.