Prospecting Tips & Why I don't do it anymore E206 Hobby Quick Hits

Probably quick hits delivering that breaking hobby nimbs. Direct your earloaders. You want to know those hot Josh my card shopshop. You've got your help.

Your host John new name name. Welcome to episode two oh six of Hobby Quick Hits. Today's topic prospecting in the hobby, something I used to do I really don't anymore. Now I may go after a certain player per se, but I used to really prospect card especially with Bowman and open.

You know, I opened the case one year, open multiple boxes. I don't do that anymore. And on today's episode, I'll talk about when I did it and why I don't, so hopefully semi interesting anyway, and maybe even throw in a couple tips to you know, help you if you do prospect and what worked for me or helped me out during the times that I did that. So let's start the show.

Okay, Now, a quick word from our great sponsor, followed by the new product release schedule. Then we'll go around the hobby verse to tell you all the latest hobby happenings and news. Then we'll tackle today's topic of discussion. Hi, this is Pat Hughes, Cubs announcer, coming to you from the Sports Card Shop in beautiful New Buffalo, Michigan.

The Gotcher family has built an incredible place here for collectors to buy, sell, and trade cards and memorabilia. Be sure to stop buy and let them show you around. The Sportscardshop dot com, connecting sports at leads the hobby and collectors around the world. Hi, this is Alan Pinkett and I'm here to tell you the Gocher family has done it again.

They've just opened up the Sport Card Shop in downtown Valparaiso, Indiana, and it is awesome. If you're a collector, you need to check this place out. Tell them Alan sent you and get a free gift on your first visit. All right, let's check out this week's hobby wax releases.

Take it away. Oh hey guy, it's his own from Sports Red Shop. Let's go over the week releases. Starting off on the seventh, we have K League Soccer.

That's Prism, and now the ninth we have Keepsake Pieces X Collection and Panini Mosaic Basketball. And then going to the tenth we have tops Comb Bundesliga Soccer Blaster and tops Crumb Bunsliga Soccer. And then on eleventh we have have tops UFC Chrome Blaster and then Chrome Megas of UFC, and then on the sixteenth we have Panini EuroLeague, Crown Royal Basketball, Panee, Don Rush Elite Football Pulse, Murdering Football, top Scrume Basketball, Sapphire Upper Deck Credentials Hockey, and then going to the seventeenth, we have Panie Select Basketball, Hobby Mega Upper Deck Goodwin Champions and last, but not least, on the eighteenth, we have Leaf Perl Multi Sport. That's it, I see you.

Let's go round the hobby verse and catch up on this week's hobby news. And find out all right. Unfortunately, let's start off with a sad note. Recent Hall of Fame Baseball inductee the Cobra Dave Parker passed away.

I know it's seeing some recent photos of him. Was not looking great. Was hoping he'd get the to have his day in Cooperstown, get up on the podium and make a speech. It was kind of a long time coming for him, but unfortunately he's passed away at battling some health issues and so I'm sure his family will do a great job representing him up there on the podium for his induction here in July in August for Hall of Fame, and I mean congrets.

I guess there's some solace in knowing that he knew he was going into the Hall of Fame. What are the top three eBay searches when it comes to the hobby Michael Jordan number one, the person I call the Michael Jordan of women's basketball. Caitlyn Clark finishes at number two, and Jayden Daniels rounds up third. No major surprises there, but it goes to show you the power of Michael Jordan twenty two years after his last appearance in a basketball game, that he's still such a hobby star.

War Well and number one on the EBA search list. Not surprised, but you know, it just shows you the pool he still has hobby wise. Congrats to Leaf they have the They've worked out a deal with the Major League Baseball Players Association to produce minor league baseball cards starting in July with a Leaf metal release. No mention of what players you may see or what levels of minor league ball, whether it be just single, A, double, A, triple A, a combination of all three, or other levels of minor league ball, but these will only be minor league players, they cannot have major league appearances.

But you know, congrats to Leaf. I'm not sure if Pinini was efforting that and didn't get it done, but leif got it done, that will start in July. We've had a lot of you know, in Sports Carnation, we've had a lot of people who are members of Saber UH based the Saber Baseball Club or association organization. They're caretakers in a sense of the history of the game, talk about maybe some lesser known players, talk about stats and different things like that.

We've had members on Sports Carnations and now we have a second person that's been on the show that's won the Jefferson Burdick Award. They give that out once a year to a distinguished person who makes contribute contribute contributions to what they do, and so congrats are in order. For pre war cards, as he's known on social media, Anson Whaley one of the premium premiere you know, historians when it comes to vintage and pre war baseball cards and very knowledgeable, lots of expertise and deserving of the Jefferson Verdic Awards. So congrats to Anson and becomes that to my knowledge the second alumnus of sports Carnation to win that award.

We're not taking any credit for that, but like to throw that in there. The other the other person that won the Jefferson Verdic Award was doctor James Beckett. So congrats in order there for for Anson golden auction magic Bird p s A ten closed out at five hundred k. Thought it would bring a little more than that at PSA ten.

If you know anything about that card, plenty of conditions, sensitive issues. Print marks are very prevalent, centering, whether it be left to right or top to bottom. Obviously, it's a perforated card, so you can get some tearing at times, and fringe, you know, material hanging off. And so I thought there were less tens than their Actually are there twenty three psa tens, which isn't a ton.

Obviously it's a low number, but I thought there were even less than that. I thought this would be a million dollar card. But great specimen nonetheless, all right, let's finish up with a story that's big news. Panini stopped me.

If you heard this before, Panini taking a little heat for their actions, if you will, But they recently launched a product via their Dutch auction method where it starts at a high price and there's a floor price. It's the twenty twenty four w NBA Rookie Royalty two card box, if you will. Every box is guaranteed either an Angel Reese or Caitlin Clark Auto and one Kaboom or Downtown you know the case hits. That's not just Angel Reese or Kitten Clark.

The kabooms in Downtown's could be a variety of WNBA players. But each box is guaranteed one or Caitlin Clark Auto of various products and numbering. The ceiling was thirty K, the floor was three K. I know some boxes went for at least eight K.

There's some speculation that when it hit the floor three K, they sold some but pulled some back. We obviously that's an allegation, no way to prove it. There was a limit of ten boxes per transaction. You know, a lot of mystery surrounding this product.

How much was made. There's no. Set info on how many boxes were produced, and the cards that are in it come from will be either like National Treasures, flawless in the maculate. So rather than make in a maculate, W NBA or Flawless w NBA or National Treasure.

They made that product, but put the cards into this. And obviously I don't want to say jack the price up, but getting four figures on a product I've seen some opened, you're getting two cards, right, So if you paid eight K for a box, you paid four thousand dollars a card. If any boxes did sell for the base level of three k, even that person has fifteen hundred sight unseen in each car. And let's be real, if you're pulling Angel Reese auto or rather than a Caitlin Clark auto, you know, you're probably probably a losing proposition depending on what your Kaboom or downtown is.

It's a lot of money, but it's you know again, breakers are probably going to buy this up to do breaks on and people are going to buy into those breaks. So, you know, a lot of people didn't like the fact that Pannini did this via Dutch auction to distribute it. A lot of people were upset that no numbers were released to how any boxes were made. But I got a feeling that numbers probably high because it's become like a Chronicles issue where they're putting that natural Treasure, Flawless and a Maculate cards in the set and rather than release those as a standalone products.

So be interesting to see what happens on the secondary market with the cards that are pulled out of these boxes. So all right, there you go. All right, today's topic of discussion prospecting going to be heavily Baseball centered. But you know, when we talk about prospecting, that could be any sport, right, but it's really heavily Baseball because of the Bowman brand.

Right when they started releasing draft picks and prospects products where you could get guys probably four or five maybe even more years before they would ever make their major league debut. Where you didn't see you don't see that in a lot of the other sports, right that the other sports basketball, football, even hockey, although there are some minor league issues with AHL and CHLD. You know, you almost had to wait till that player was in the pros on the pro level before you got cards. But Bowman changed that game, you know, really around in the early nineties with getting those guys on cardboard and and chrome, you know, well in advance of a potential big league debut, and it caused a frenzy right, and I got I don't want to say I got caught up in it like I had no choice, but I love that stuff.

I'm a huge baseball fan. I lived, you know, whether it be New York City or Syracuse, I've always lived in a baseball city. Here in Syracuse, we have the Triple A Mets, They've been the Triple A Nationals, they've been the Triple A Blue Jays, and before I got here, they were even the Triple A Yankees. So I've always lived in a baseball town.

I've always with Syracuse having the miners. You see these future stars come through here, and it gets your juices flowing. So I got into prospecting now even before Bowman really started putting guys from the draft. And you know, I remember you're probably remember the nineteen eighty nine Bowman release Griffy's rookie year.

Obviously everyone was trying to get Griffy, but I was collecting Jerome Walton cards Cubs phenom at the time and trying to get as many Jerome Waltons as I could. I've still got three binders of Greg Jeffrey just rookie in my garage that my wife every once in a while asked me to get rid of and I can't pull the trigger on And now I wasn't necessarily collecting, you know, thinking I was going to put my future kid through college or anything like that. But I just enjoyed, you know, as a baseball player myself, trying to speculate and predict who would who would make it and avoid those who I didn't think would be major league stars. Right, and you don't guess right all the time.

Matter of fact, you're probably gets wrong most of the time. And when it comes to prospecting, you know, you probably want to be right five or six out of ten times, otherwise it'll generally be a losing proposition, depending on you know the player and how much you're you're putting in uh into that player. And some of the some of the guys I've member even before Bowman came out with with draft picks, some of the guys I remember kind of stockpiling Kadre and Poppo, Mark Pryor. I wasn't a Brian Taylor guy, but a lot of people around me were, so I would kind of I didn't for whatever reason, I didn't think he was going to pan out.

I thought there was a lot of hype being a Yankee and a heart thrower, so I would often trade him for other guys I believed in, and that was probably a smart play. Grand Popo, Mark Pryor, Mark Pryor, Well, they had moments, definitely not a smart play, And that kind of became the backbone of one of my rules even today, right is be careful investing in pitchers, because just one bad game, one bad moment, could can change a pitching career. I mean that gonna happen to a position player too, but you know, position players not throwing seventy eighty balls a game in the high nineties or nineties, so more opportunity for arm injuries, surgeries and the like. So even when I buy a certain player today, I try to stay away from pictures.

Sometimes I will break my room rule. Most recently two guys that I broke that rule for Tristan mackenzie and Corbyn Burns. You know, Tristan McKenzie struggling to find some of that star form he had early and Corbyn Burns also now out for the rest of the year, maybe most of twenty twenty six as well. Although I still like Corbyn Burns and when he's played a very good pitcher.

But you got a guy like Tarik Scruble who looks dominating, right, But you never know, and so I don't always recom and you know, prospecting with pictures unless you get in really cheap. And Corbyn Burns and Tristan Mackenzie were you know, while they right now doesn't look like a winning formula. I don't have a ton invested, if you will. Let's talk about a little bit of the trajectory of Bowman here to give a little perspective.

Right, the Bowman brand was reenacted, right, brought back from the dead in nineteen eighty nine, as I mentioned with the Griffy Rookie Year and Jerome Walton among others. But really it was nineteen it was, you know, the nineteen nineties when Bowman really started, you know, their designs became better, their card size became back to normal. Let's talk about some milestones. Nineteen ninety six was the first usage of the first Bowman logo that she's that we're all familiar with today.

Nineteen ninety six was when that first appeared, but they were not consistent with using it. So there's people who have a there's players that have a first Bowman card that may not have a first Bowman logo on it. It really didn't start becoming consistent until two thousand and three, So seven years after they debuted the first Bowman logo, when did Bowman Chrome first debut? Nineteen ninety seven was the first time you went from just paper Bowman to having the chrome edition of it, And I know that sort of set the paper versions back. I'm still fan of both.

They're both cards, you know, one obviously it may be a little sharper looking, but I appreciate the regular cardboard and the chrome just the same. But two thousand the year that was the debut of when they start putting draft picks and prospects in before they made you know, a big league appearance. And I know Victor, my friend Victor probably not a fan of that because it muddies the rookie waters. But as a prospector during this period, I enjoyed it and I opened I forgot I can't remember what year because I opened so much Bowman through the early two thousands and up, but I opened the case one year, I opened half cases the other years.

Then I would buy you know, fifty one hundred count lots of certain players that I thought would hit. You know, it's it's and sometimes you get it right, sometimes you don't. That's the fun, right, It's like it's not like gambling in a sense, it is gambling. You're placing a back on these young baseball players careers, right, whether they're gonna live up to the hype or fall short.

And I like to think overall I did pretty well, but not you know, I didn't. I didn't get them all right. I mentioned some you know that that I didn't. And you know, Nolan Aernato was a guy that I was in early on that paid off.

There's others as well. I kind of was in early on Vlad Guerrero, you know. But it's you know, so why do I prospect not at all or very little? Now? Well, let's be honest. Right when I was opening those half cases and cases of Bowmen, the prices are not parallel to what Bowman goes for.

Now, you know, you could get Bowman for under one hundred bucks a bocks and now what they go for three four hundred bucks. I don't even buy the boxes anymore. So I don't even know. I just know and you, as you probably know, they skyrocketed through the roof.

What caused that, I don't think it's one thing. I think the infatuation with the brand breaking where products don't have any trouble selling out. But I think Bowman really went to that next level with the twenty eighteen product and the show Hey o'connie craze and really every I don't want to say just that, but that was a big catalyst to you know, when Bowman started really going to the next stratosphere as far as you know, sealed wax prices, sealed case prices, and probably twenty eighteen was the last year I opened a substantial amount of Bowman. And when I say substantial amount, not cases or cases.

I was buying blasters anytime I can find could find him, and I actually ran into pockets of him, and I opened quite a bit of blaster's, got a lot of a tant o'conni's, and and did well and still have some to this day. Uh kind of put away as well for for the long term, right. And that's the other thing, whether you prospect or not, is right timing, you know. So let's say you pick a guy and he does have a great year and he makes his debut or you know, two or three.

In two or three seasons into his debut, he's looking like the real deal. Right now, you have to decide, you know, do I do I hold longer and let it kind of marinate and maybe potentially go up. Do I sell now while the iron's hot, because you never know that that could that pendulum could swing the other way. So those that's that's the game, right when do I sell? Some people who may be are less of fans.

I hate to say it like that, they just wait until they hit. As soon as they hit where there's a buzz, they're cashing out. Right. They're like casino players, right, they hit on the roulette and blackjack, they're taking the chips to the window and getting the cash.

Right. I was not really like that unless the only time I'd do something like that during my prospecting days, folks, was when I sort of felt like that was the pinnacle for that player, or I was nervous whether they could keep up the pace they were on long term. I thought, so that's sort of they've hit their crescendo and it would only be potentially downhill from here and again, it's a guessing game. You're not always right.

Sometimes you are right, and I've been right and wrong in both case scenarios where I cashed out, you know, sold those cards and that career kind of took a turn for the worst, and it was good timing. I've done the opposite, right. Let's you know, I spoke about him show hey. I still have decent amount of show hey.

But even during you know that that debut of his cards, I had a lot of show hate. I sold a lot early, you know, including a couple of autos and game you stuff and just general rookies that I probably wish I didn't sell us early. And you can't really kick yourself forward, but you you know, it crosses your mind sometimes, right, And that's that's the fun of it all, you know. So do I miss prospecting, No, because I'm spending probably a lot more money on that.

Do I still do that? I do it in this sense. I don't open the wax like I just previously mentioned, on the same level I did. I might pick up a blaster or box every now and then, more blasters on the retail level, if anything, But you know, I'm more of like a player prospector than they product. So if I think there's a player who's sort of the under the radar, and I follow all the Baseball America Top one hundred lists, I'm a baseball fan, I'm a fantasy league player, and in my fantasy league that have been in thirty years, we have a minor league draft.

That's how detailed it is. So I'm keeping tabs on these guys years in advance before they're ever going to see a major league field. So if there's a player that I think is going to be, you know, potentially a great major leaguer, and maybe he's not highly ranked on the prospect list, I try to find that guy and buy him and get in when the ceiling's real low. You know.

But now with the draft being more publicized, more coverage of the draft, the prospect list coming out earlier and more prevalent, everyone sort of knows who the top prospects always are, and it's driven you know, we're talking about the wax prices going up, it's also driven up individual player prices. I love Bobby Witt. I have a lot of Bobby Witt junior. He's sort of my modern day guy that I collect.

If you will, or PC if you will. But he was you know, he was a high draft pick, the son of a former major league pitcher, and so there was no he didn't sneak up on anybody. Everyone knew about him. So while I did buy quite a bit of his stuff, you know, probably didn't get him as cheap as maybe someone else who would be under the radar.

But you can still be successful doing that. You know. I bought Bobby Wood Junior, and he looks like the real deal at this point, and so the prices I did get in on him on and I still have a lot of that stuff. I sold some and kept others.

I'm ahead if you will. And that's the thing. It's like any kind of gambling, right you want to you know, if you gamble ten times, you want to win six and at the bare minimum five or it's going to be a losing proposition. So but it's it's as long as you have fun, as long as you don't go in debt, right, you know, like they tell you a gambling you know, I don't go to the casino like the younger version of me did, but I have some friends that do, and I always tell him, you know, kind of cliche, but don't don't bring any more than you can afford to lose, whether that's fifty bucks, one hundred bucks, or a thousand bucks whatever.

You know, Bracket your in financially, don't, you know, don't bring that atm card and keep taking with draws and then at the end of the day you're beside yourself and depressed because you lost your mortgage payment. Right, have fun with it, but don't don't get into a point where the fund gets lost in the mix, because now you're ran up a credit card debt or you cleaned your bank account out. And be smart, right, you know, do some research. You know, it's like stock market.

I own stocks, you know, when I buy stocks, I try to research the company or listen to what some pundits or experts are saying about a company or a stock. Now that doesn't mean they're always right, but if they're in that space, they generally and their trustworthy, they know what they're talking about. Same thing with prospecting whatever sport, right, listening to what the scouts are saying. You know, someone ask me, you know what level do I start believing the guy's tearing up single a is at a time to to kind of buy into a player.

And my answer is not necessarily what level do I start taking no real notice if they're they're putting up numbers double A, uh, because that's when you're those bad If they're a hitter, they're facing those high draft pick pitchers more at the double A level than at the rookie ball or single A level. Uh, They're they're facing those bonus babies at double uh, double A and obviously higher. So when A when a player has a good double A season, that's when my ears will perk up more than a single A season. Now that doesn't mean you throw away what they did at Single A or rookie ball, but I want to see it repeated or close to that performance at double A because that's when they're gonna face tougher pitch and kind of what they're gonna face future big leaguers.

Uh, they're gonna face more future big leaguers at double A than at single A. A lot of Single AYE players kind of flame out, retire, end their baseball career, and then onto their real life's work. Double A is more of a long term baseball player. When when we talk about baseball kind of close out this episode with can you prospect in other sports? You can, right, but it's more like once they've already been drafted, uh, you know, and you gotta be quick because there's no real minor leagues in football.

There isn't hockey. I know, there's the G League in basketball, but right, let's be real, right, very few G League players become NBA superstar. So, uh, they're the higher draft picks generally speaking, in the NBA draft that don't even see the G League. They make the ball club right out of the draft.

So you have to be quicker, and you have to be you know, more responsive. You don't sort of get a four to five year window to decide. I'm going to pick up some of his or her stuff and I'll say her. Now we have the WNBA as well, so you know, whatever sports you enjoy, you can prospect.

Like I said, I do a lot less now comparatively speaking to my heydays in the late eighties and early nineties and up to the two thousands. But it's still fun. It's still fun to pick a player. While I'm more of a vintage guy.

I mentioned Bobby Wood Junior. Love what he's doing. I have quite a bit of his stuff. It's a few other guys you know that I've put some stuff away and forget about it if you will.

So, and I even do it in other sports football, I'm a big brock Bauer Marvin Harrison junior. I've kind of bought bunches of them and sort of sitting on them. I don't do what basketball. Basketball is my least favorite sport.

I don't do it a lot with hockey, you know. I just don't open a ton of hockey all the time. So baseball and football I'll tend to be my go to. So hope you enjoyed the episode.

Any questions, my doors always open. Thanks for listening to everyone. We'll see you soon, all right, thank you for listening to another episode of Hobby Quickets. Want to give out our social media, starting with our website, which is www dot Sportscardinationpodcast dot com Facebook.

You can follow us at www dot facebook dot com, forward slash Sportscardination Podcast, Forward slash Twitter. We are at sportscard nat t one, sportscard n at I one, Instagram at Sportscardination Podcast, or you can email the show Hobby quick Hits at gmail dot com again, thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.